IPCC report substitutes unprovable hypothesis for truth, claim Japanese scientists, according to article in The Register, 25 February 2009. In a report by the Japan Society of Energy and Resources (JSER) three leading Japanese scientists commissioned to report on climate disagreed sharply with the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Evaluation Report, which claims that atmospheric temperatures will continue to rise as a result of man-made emissions. Instead, the Japanese researchers claim recent changes in the earth's climate are driven by natural cycles. Kanya Kusano is Program Director and Group Leader for the Earth Simulator at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology criticised the use of computer models as proof of man-made warming, comparing them to ancient astrology before accurate data was available of movements of sun, moon and planets. According to Kusano there are too many natural phenomena contributing to the climate that we have not be able measure accurately for long enough to be included in the model, e.g. effects of cosmic rays, changes in sun spots and solar irradiance, formation of aerosols and clouds. Kusano concludes: "[The IPCC's] conclusion that from now on atmospheric temperatures are likely to show a continuous, monotonic increase, should be perceived as an unprovable hypothesis." Shunichi Akasofu, head of the International Arctic Research Center in Alaska, commented, "We should be cautious. IPCC's theory that atmospheric temperature has risen since 2000 in correspondence with CO2 is nothing but a hypothesis. Before anyone noticed, this hypothesis has been substituted for truth... The opinion that great disaster will really happen must be broken."

The Register

Editorial Comment: The popular media and politicians who use the IPCC reports in their warning of impending catastrophes fail to remind the general public that the IPCC predictions are only computer models, and that average world temperature since 1998 has levelled off. The Japanese scientists remind us that computer models are only as good as the data fed into them, and we don't have enough precise data about many natural phenomena. The solution to this problem is to carry out more research, not promote the computer models which have been proven wrong by a lack of global warming for most of the present decade. (Ref. predictions, weather, meteorology)

Evidence News 8 April 2009


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